The Digest #186
Macintosh at 40, Coffee Can Investing, Haslams on Pilot, Vision Pro's missing apps, Investment checklists, Shane Parrish interviews Tom Gayner, Novo Nordisk, Howard Marks on interest rates and more...
The Macintosh at 40
On January 24, 1984, Steve Jobs unveiled the first Macintosh computer. The graphical user interface and general ease of use seemed revolutionary, although the $2,495 price tag was a major impediment at a time when the median household income was just over $26,000. Relative to the purchasing power of Americans, the original Mac was even more expensive than Apple’s Vision Pro! While the Mac was not the resounding commercial success that Jobs was hoping for, it changed personal computing forever.
One of the memorable aspects about the unveiling was its unapologetically anti-authoritarian vibe, as seen in the famous Super Bowl television commercial:
I had to wait two years before my parents purchased a Mac plus in 1986. That was the first computer that I spent any time working on, although I recall that I was more excited by the primitive games. Of course, this was before the internet and the “walled garden” services such as American Online, CompuServe, and Prodigy were still in their infancies. When I sat down to do schoolwork, there were few distractions.
The Steve Jobs Archive posted a brief article, A Computer for the Rest of Us, to commemorate the anniversary. Putting aside the fact that the product was certainly not priced for the mass market, the article provides an interesting perspective.
“The Macintosh aimed to be the first mass-market personal computer that was truly user-friendly. From seeds planted by others, including former Apple manager Jef Raskin and researchers at Xerox PARC and the Stanford Research Institute, this young team had worked around the clock to create a computer that was simple and sophisticated, designed to encourage creativity as much as to enhance productivity. Now they were just days away from launch.”
Articles
How the Haslam family will remember the Pilot era as Berkshire takes ownership by Brenna McDermott, January 22, 2024. This is a positive story about the Haslams in their hometown paper. The details of the settlement have yet to emerge. "… We realized things were going to be run differently, and there were some philosophical differences," Jimmy Haslam told Knox News. "Listen, it (was) their right, they owned 80% of the company and paid us a lot of money for that 80%. We just thought it was best for our family to go ahead and sell the 20% and to move on, and we certainly wish the company and all its team members nothing but the best of luck." (Knox News) h/t
Warren Buffett: Teacher at Heart by
, January 23, 2024. “Warren Buffett has often remarked that he would rather be remembered as a teacher than an investor. And, better yet, he actually means it. He freely shares his knowledge and expertise with others — far and wide — through lengthy annual letters, countless media appearances, and those marathon Q&A sessions in Omaha each spring.”(Kingswell)The Apple Vision Pro’s Missing Apps by Ben Thompson, January 22, 2024. This is a historical overview of Apple’s strategy for third party apps, from the early days of the iPhone up to the present day. The question of which apps will be available for the Vision Pro at launch is probably not critical given that the factor limiting adoption will likely be supply constraints. But to achieve mass adoption in the long run, a healthy third party ecosystem of native VisionPro apps will be important. (Stratechery)
Building An Investment Checklist by
, January 19, 2024. “The fourth law of thermodynamics is considered so fundamental that it was called the Zeroth Law since the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd were already established. I think the first item on any investment checklist should be such a zeroth checklist item. ‘Should I even be looking at this company/stock?’ is such an easy question it often gets overlooked.” (Watchlist Investing)The Decision to Issue Greenbacks, January 22, 2024. “In one of the most momentous developments of the Civil War, the U.S. -- which had not had a national currency of any type to that point -- elected to begin printing currency. It was a highly contested decision, and yet that currency, which came to be called ‘greenbacks,’ was a key early part of the successful financing of that war.” (Delancey Place)
Being Poor Doesn't Have the Same Effect as Living in Chaos by
, January 21, 2024. “Researchers found that childhood poverty (harshness) was not significantly associated with any of the 5 outcome variables. In contrast, there was a significant correlation between childhood unpredictability 4 of the 5 outcome variables—number of sexual partners, aggressive behavior, delinquent behavior, and criminal behavior. For males, but not females, instability predicted having sex at an earlier age.” (Rob Henderson’s Newsletter)The Questioning Mind Is Most Alive by Lawrence Yeo, January 2024. “I started realizing that the more questions I asked, the more I learned. It seems like such an obvious statement, but it’s quite shocking how few questions you ask when you’re with people you’re comfortable with. … There are many reasons why this may be the case, but the most salient is that your curiosity toward the person has been extinguished.” (More to That)
We are just temporary occupants of this office by
, January 20, 2024. When U.S. Presidents write to their successors. (Letters of Note)Podcasts
Tom Gayner: Short-Term Patience, Long-Term Results, January 23, 2024. 2 hours, 8 minutes. Video. Highlights. Tom Gayner, CEO of Markel, has appeared on several podcasts recently. I think that this conversation was the most insightful in terms of better understanding his worldview and personal history. (The Knowledge Project)
How to Make a Few Billion Dollars: Brad Jacobs, January 23, 2024. 1 hour, 12 minutes. Highlights. “I'm what's called a moneymaker. I've started five companies from scratch—seven if you include two spin-offs and turned them all into billion dollar or multibillion-dollar enterprises. … I love working with outrageously talented people to deliver outsized returns for shareholders in public stock markets.” (Founders Podcast)
Novo Nordisk (Ozempic), January, 22, 2024. 3 hours, 45 minutes. Video. Transcript. This is an extremely long podcast and I have only listened to the first ninety minutes. So far, it is a good discussion of the history of Novo Nordisk as well as the terrible history of diabetes. I plan to finish listening to the rest of the podcast soon. (Acquired)
Kidney Failure and the Dialysis Industry, May 14, 2022. (The Rational Walk)
Patek Philippe: Watch Perfection, January 24, 2024. 59 minutes. Transcript. I don’t understand the attraction of owning a watch that costs five, six, or seven figures. The fact that luxury consumer goods is outside my circle of competence is a good reason to listen to podcasts like this one that explain the economics. (Business Breakdowns)
2024: My Big Fat Greek Reading List, January 19, 2024. 38 minutes. I recently discovered this podcast as I looked for information to plan my own reading list of the Great Books. The business world has the great Founders Podcast and I’m starting to think of Books of Titans in the same way for the world of the classics. (Books of Titans)
Howard Marks on the Fed Funds Rate
On a recent CNBC appearance, Howard Marks states that the Fed Funds rate should average around 3% in the long run with inflation running somewhat higher than 2%. This is in line with market expectations embedded in the yield curve which seem to incorporate several cuts to the Fed Funds rate during this election year.
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