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Kiwirob's avatar

Perhaps a little early to be saying following Charlie into Alibaba ended in tears? The share price since his first purchase might end up being the best thing that could happen due to the price at which the company is able to buy back shares. Nobody should be 'investing' with a 2 year horizon, let's judge in 15 years.

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The Rational Walk's avatar

Well, Charlie himself admitted that it was a mistake in his final interview with Becky Quick. So I'm willing to say it was a mistake as well.

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Kiwirob's avatar

I believe that interview was well after your article was written. After studying the two closely for many years like you have done, I have noticed that they are quick to depreciate themselves and I have many examples where what they have called mistake would be the biggest successes of our careers. I'm not saying that it wasn't or that it won't end in tears, just highlighting the share price performance and the business performance are very different things and in time we might come to realise that indeed it was very astute buying.

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The Rational Walk's avatar

The interview was after the article but your point is an argument with Charlie himself, not with me. He considered it an error. I called it like I saw it a few months earlier and, in retrospect, I was correct to do so based on Charlie's subsequent statements. I stand by what I wrote.

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Kiwirob's avatar

Yes you are right, he also considered buying Berkshire an error. They both are very harsh on themselves and call out many errors they have made which were to anyone else genius moves. In some context buying Berkshire was the biggest mistake of Buffetts career but a lot of others would think differently! But currently it sure looks like the both of you are correct. I'm just trying to think 15 years out and if that view could possibly change?

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