The Digest #195
BHE Investor Conference, United States vs. Apple, Ajit Jain interview, Flaws in medical studies, Pursuing happiness, Mitsubishi Corporation, Robert Cialdini interview, and more ...
Quote of the Week
“One of the first things to notice about professional gamblers is that there are no professional roulette players, slot players, or craps or keno or lottery players. That is because you cannot win at those games; the house has a mathematical edge. The longer you play, the more certain it is you will lose.”
Articles
BHE 2024 Investor Conference Slides, March 2024. Earlier this week, Berkshire Hathaway Energy posted slides for a presentation given at a recent conference. The presentation is very detailed and provides a quick way to get up to speed with the company’s operations. In December, I wrote an article about an earlier presentation and earlier this month I wrote a detailed article covering BHE’s PacifiCorp subsidiary.
Reinsurers to bear the bulk of insured cost of Baltimore bridge collapse by Luke Gallin, March 27, 2024. “The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge near the Port of Baltimore, Maryland is expected to drive billions of dollars in insured losses, with reinsurers set to bear the bulk of the claim amid concerns it could become the largest ever marine loss … While severity is still to be determined, it’s clear that the accident will impact several lines of business, such as property, cargo, liability, trade credit, and contingent business interruption, with marine insurers and reinsurers undoubtedly involved in the loss.” (Reinsurance News)
United States v. Apple by Ben Thompson, March 25, 2024. “This, we know, is the beginning of a long journey: there will be months or years of filings and discovery and preliminary rulings; eventually we will have a trial, and months after that a decision. Then there are the appeals, first with three judges, then perhaps en banc, and maybe even the Supreme Court. At some point, should the government win, there will be a hearing about remedies, themselves subject to the same grinding schedule. Only then can a proper determination be made about the validity of the legal questions in this case.” (Stratechery)
"Buffett's Prince of Risk": Ajit Jain Q&A Transcript by Kingswell, March 25, 2024. “In 2011, Ajit Jain of Berkshire Hathaway granted a very rare interview to NDTV India for a television special titled ‘Buffett’s Prince of Risk’. For close to thirty minutes, he fielded questions from journalist Anjana Menon on topics ranging from Berkshire’s insurance operations to matters of retirement, legacy, and philanthropy.” (Kingswell)
Smart Words from Smart People by Morgan Housel, March 24, 2024. This article contains a collection of interesting quotes including this one: “‘Schopenhauer’s ideal is to be wealthy enough to have expansive free time and the intellectual capabilities to fill it with contemplation and activity in the service of mankind.’ – Derren Brown” (Collaborative Fund)
Wise Words from Bill Miller, March 20, 2024. This article contains a collection of interesting quotes from Bill Miller including this one: “The problem is that real risk and perceived risk are two different things. And that’s where people get into trouble, because they perceive risk to be high when prices are low, and they perceive risk to be low when prices are high. That’s the psychological problem that most people have.” (Novel Investor)
Does time-restricted eating increase the risk of cardiovascular death? by Peter Attia, March 23, 2024. The mainstream media often reports on medical studies without any meaningful examination of assumptions made or methodologies used. This article is worth reading because it is a criticism of a poorly constructed study and also serves as a general warning to read medical studies critically in general. (Peter Attia MD)
The Riddle of Happiness by Lawrence Yeo, March 2024. It’s the journey, not the destination. “The only way you’re happy is when the thought of pursuing it ceases. When you’re content with whatever you’re doing, regardless of how it’s going or what the results may be. You are happy when there is no goal to hit because you understand that the pursuit of that goal creates the endpoint of satisfaction, which is never the answer.” (More to That)
Podcasts
Mitsubishi Corporation: A Japanese Trading Company, March 27, 2024. 46 minutes. Transcript. “In Japan, the business model of a trading company is prominent. The big five trading companies caught the attention of global investors in 2020, when Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a major stake in all of them: Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Itochu, Marubeni, and Sumitomo. Today's Berkshire stake is nearly 10%.” (Business Breakdowns)
The Eternal Pursuit of Unhappiness: David Ogilvy, March 24, 2024. 32 minutes. Top Ten Highlights. Transcript. “… I'm obsessed with David Ogilvy, I consider him one of my personal heroes, and I didn't even know who he was until I read Warren Buffett shareholder letters, and he kept referring to Ogilvy as a genius. And so I was like, oh, I got to find out who this guy is, so I bought every book that I could find on him.” (Founders)
The Godfather of Influence w/Dr. Robert Cialdini, March 21, 2024. 1 hour, 3 minutes. Transcript. “And I then went to my mailbox … and found a legal sized envelope, and I opened it, and there was a single share of Berkshire A stock in there with a note from Charlie Munger, someone I had heard of course, and, but never had any contact with, and … he said, ‘In your book, Influence, your principle of reciprocity which is that we are obligated to give back to those who have first given us compensation in return.’” (We Study Billionaires)
Review of Influence by Robert Cialdini, February 22, 2009 (The Rational Walk)
The AI Bubble Thesis with Doug Clinton, March 21, 2024. 59 minutes. Video. “AI stocks have seen a big run recently. This has led many fundamental-based investors to suggest that things have gotten ahead of themselves. Some have even suggested AI is already in a bubble. But what if we are still in the early innings? What if a bubble is just getting started that could eventually exceed the dotcom bubble?” (Excess Returns)
Improve Your Investing Operating System w/Vitaliy Katsenelson, March 24, 2024. 1 hour, 13 minutes. Transcript. A wide ranging discussion about investing, stoicism, meditation, writing, Soul in the Game, and related topics. (We Study Billionaires)
Review of Soul in the Game, June 20, 2022. (The Rational Walk)
Springtime in Spain
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Lots of good stuff here. Thanks.