Thanks for your posts.

I've had this speculation ever since Russia went in. China will get Taiwan (like HK) as soon as USA has running manufacturing facilities (TSMC, Intel and other companies have diversified themselves). I'll go even further and speculate that there is an implicit agreement between USA and China that will bring peace longer-term :)

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Mar 29, 2022Liked by The Rational Walk

In manufacturing engineering we colloquially call this 'process insurance'. Holding unutilized key tools looks like inefficiency, but counter intuitively the redundancy is best practice since it ensures constant system uptime. We should absolutely plan for potential systemic trade failures according to how likely they are and how damaging they would be should they occur.

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